Markets · Dossier

S&P 500 futures

ESMESUS500One E-mini S&P 500 contract controls about $375,000 of index at $50 a point, and a normal trading day travels 25–45 points. This dossier states what the contract is, when it moves — CPI at 8:30 ET, FOMC at 14:00 ET — and what those distances do to an account: the same market that grinds 0.7% on a quiet day fell nearly 5% before the open on 5 August 2024.

Primary symbol
ES
Avg daily range
0.7%
Sources cited
53
As of
2026-07-31

The instrument

Contract unit
$50 × S&P 500 IndexAbout $375,000 notional with the index near 7,500 (S&P 500 ≈ 7,490 on 2026-07-31). CME Globex symbol ES.
Tick
0.25 index points = $12.50Per contract. A 1.00-point move is $50 per contract.
Micro contract
MES, $5 × indexOne tenth of ES: 0.25 tick = $1.25, a 1.00-point move = $5. About $37,500 notional at the same level. Same hours, months, and settlement mechanics as ES.
Exchange
CME (Globex)
Hours
Sun 18:00 ET – Fri 17:00 ETNearly 24/5, with a daily maintenance halt 17:00–18:00 ET.
Months
Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec (H, M, U, Z)Quarterly. Cash-settled — no delivery.
Daily settlement
VWAP, 14:59:30–15:00:00 CTVolume-weighted average of Globex trades in the last 30 seconds before 15:00 CT, rounded to the nearest 0.25 — a single unambiguous exchange print each day.
Final settlement
S&P 500 SOQ, third FridayCash-settled to the Special Opening Quotation of the S&P 500 on the third Friday of the contract month; the expiring contract stops trading 9:30 ET that day.
Margin (broker-set)
ES: ~$2,800 intraday / ~$27,600–32,800 overnightBroker snapshot 2026-08-01 via emini-watch.com: TradeStation ES $2,762 intraday / $27,616 overnight initial; IBKR $22,987 / $32,839. MES: TradeStation $276 / $2,762. CME exchange-minimum margins were not verifiable from the official pages for this dossier; margins move with volatility — check CME and your broker before sizing anything.
CFD equivalent
US500 / SPX500OTC contract with the broker as counterparty (e.g., FTMO lists “US500.cash”): flexible size, but broker-set pricing and spread, and no exchange settlement print to resolve against.

How it moves

No current-month average daily range is published anywhere we could verify, so the 0.7% figure is derived: 30-day realized volatility of the S&P 500 was 10.69% annualized at the close of 2026-07-29, which is about 0.67% per day, and a practitioner regime table maps VIX 16–22 to 25–45 ES points a day — roughly 0.5–0.8% at current levels. The regime is the real variable: the same table runs from 15–25 points at VIX 12–15 to 120+ points at VIX 30+, and trailing-year realized vol spanned 4.94% (July 2025) to 24.00% (April 2026). At $50 a point, a typical 50-point day is a $2,500 full-range swing per ES contract; $250 on MES.

Average daily range

0.7%

mid-2026; ~0.7% of index ≈ 50 ES points typical, working band 0.5–1.0% (derived from realized vol + VIX-regime table, not a published ADR) · source

The scheduled events

WhenWhatWhy it matters
Monthly, 08:30 ET (~2nd week) US CPI (BLS release) The next release was listed as Wed 2026-08-12 (July data) by a secondary calendar — confirm on the BLS schedule before relying on it. Several prop firms lock the surrounding minutes (see prop rows).
First Friday of the month, 08:30 ET Nonfarm payrolls (Employment Situation) The other 8:30 repricing event; on most firms’ high-impact lists.
Eight scheduled meetings a year, 14:00 ET statement, 14:30 press conference FOMC decision A two-stage event: the statement spike at 14:00, then the press-conference whipsaw from 14:30. Official dates on the Federal Reserve calendar.
Daily, 09:30–10:30 ET US cash-market opening hour Conventionally the highest-volume, widest-range hour of the regular session — directionally true by common observation, but no specific sourced statistic was verified for this dossier.
Overnight session (18:00–09:30 ET) Price-limit structure A static ±7% limit applies overnight and the market stays open at the limit; regular hours use downside-only 7% and 13% breakers (10-minute halts) and 20% (market closes), coordinated with NYSE circuit breakers.

The extremes on record

  • 2020-03 — COVID crash: ES hit limit-down overnight; NYSE market-wide circuit breakers triggered on Mar 9, 12, 16, and 18 — the first activations since 1997. Daily ATR exceeded 150 points. (source)
  • 2024-08-05 — Yen-carry unwind: S&P futures down nearly 5% before the US open; VIX from 23 at the prior close to an intraday pre-open high of 65, closing near 40; the Nikkei fell 12.3%, its worst day since October 1987. Trigger: the BOJ’s +15bp hike on July 31. The S&P recovered its early-August losses by that Friday. (source)
  • 2025-07-29 / 2026-04-09 — Trailing-year 10-day realized volatility ran from a low of 4.94% (2025-07-29) to a high of 24.00% (2026-04-09) — a near-5× swing in regime inside twelve months. (source)

This instrument inside the corridor

The rulebook draws a corridor on a simulated $100,000 account: a daily floor at −5% and a phase-one target at +10%. Those two published percentages, priced in this instrument’s average day:

Inside the corridor Simulated · computed, not measured
An average day's range
0.7% of $7,500 ≈ 52.50 points
Worth per full contract (ES)
$2,625 per average day
Worth per micro (MES)
$262 per average day
Daily floor: −5% of the $100,000 sim
$5,000
Contracts until one adverse average day breaches it
1 full contract ($2,625 of range) — at 2, one ordinary day ends the account
Perfect average days to the +10% target ($10,000), 1 contract
≈ 3.9 days of full-range capture

SIMULATED. Range inputs: 0.7% average daily range (mid-2026; ~0.7% of index ≈ 50 ES points typical, working band 0.5–1.0% (derived from realized vol + VIX-regime table, not a published ADR)), reference price $7,500. Perfect capture of a full day’s range does not exist; this is geometry, not a promise. The 0.7% daily range is derived (realized vol + VIX-regime table), not a published ADR, and it is regime-dependent: the working band is 0.5–1.0% (≈35–75 points), and VIX-30+ tape has run 120+ points a day.

Ways in

ChannelSymbolWhat it actually is
Futures ES $50 × index on CME Globex, centrally cleared, near-24/5, with transparent CME-published settlement prices; broker intraday margin ran ~$2,800–$23,000 in the 2026-08-01 snapshot.
Micro futures MES $5 × index, one tenth of ES: 0.25 tick = $1.25; broker intraday margin was $276 at TradeStation in the same snapshot.
CFD US500 The CFD-prop instrument (FTMO lists “US500.cash”): OTC with the broker as counterparty, flexible size, but broker-set pricing and no exchange settlement print.
ETF SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — about $781B in assets, 0.0945% gross expense ratio, unleveraged cash exposure (per SSGA/ETFdb, accessed 2026-08-02).

Do prop firms let you trade it?

Availability is a rulebook question, not a marketing one: an instrument a firm lists but voids trades on around its scheduled events is only half offered. Check the current terms before relying on a row below — firms change theirs without notice, and we publish ours.

FirmOfferedThe detail that matters
up·me opens at v1.2 The corridor above is our published rule set for it. The instrument list ships with rulebook v1.2, before anything can be bought — the row you can hold us to. Create an account to be in the first cohort when it opens.
Topstep true Futures only (CME, COMEX, NYMEX, CBOT); ES and MES both permitted. Position caps by Combine size: 50K = 5 contracts (or 50 micros), 100K = 10 (100 micros), 150K = 15 (150 micros). Micros count 10:1 toward the cap on TopstepX but 1:1 on third-party platforms — the same 50 MES is either 5 or 50 “contracts” depending on where you trade it. (source)
Apex Trader Funding true CME-listed futures including ES, NQ, CL and the micros (MES, MNQ); micros count 1:1 against the contract cap (6 MES = 6, not 0.6). Metals futures were temporarily halted as of early 2026, but the equity-index complex was unaffected. March 2026 rules update: automated contract-limit enforcement via Rithmic/Tradovate, a 50% consistency rule, MAE and DCA rules removed, and 5 trading days between payouts. (source)
FTMO true US500 available as a CFD. Standard accounts: news trading is unrestricted in the Challenge, but funded (FTMO Account) holders may not open or close positions within 2 minutes before/after key releases (NFP, CPI, FOMC); positions opened more than 2 minutes before the event may be held through it. The US-type account has no news or overnight restrictions at all, with leverage up to 1:33. (source)
FundedNext true CFD side offers SPX500 (plus NDX100, US30, and others). On Stellar models in the funded phase, trades executed within 5 minutes before/after listed high-impact news get only 40% of profits credited while losses are fully borne; Challenge phases are unrestricted. The separate FundedNext Futures arm has no news-trading rules at all. (source)
FundingPips true No opening, closing, or holding trades within 10 minutes before/after a high-impact (Forex Factory red) news event on the affected instrument at the funded stage; deliberate news-spike exploitation is prohibited; and all positions must be closed before the Friday close — weekend holding is banned. (source)

How traders blow up on it

The same account-ending patterns recur on this instrument often enough to have names. None of them requires being wrong about direction.

  1. Carrying intraday size overnight. Markets can gap through stops on the reopen after global news — on 5 August 2024, S&P futures were down nearly 5% before the US open. The margin schedule says the quiet part: overnight ES margin is roughly 10× intraday at some brokers ($2,762 intraday vs $27,616 overnight at TradeStation, 2026-08-01), i.e., a position sized to intraday margin is structurally under-margined for the session where the gap risk lives. (source)
  2. Holding through FOMC. The 14:00 ET statement and 14:30 press conference produce multi-stage whipsaws, and practitioner sources call oversized positions into the 2 pm spike — plus revenge trading the aftermath — the single largest blown-account pattern on index futures. That is practitioner opinion, not academic evidence, but many prop firms restrict the window outright (see prop rows), which is its own signal. (source)
  3. Averaging into a trend day. Adding to losers on a one-way day compounds at $50 a point per ES contract. No firm publishes quantitative loss statistics on it, but Apex maintained an explicit anti-DCA rule until removing it in the 2026 rules update — indirect evidence that firms have treated averaging down as a named failure mode. (source)
  4. Sizing full ES against a small drawdown. At a normal-regime 25–45 point daily range, one ES contract swings $1,250–$2,250 a day, and a single 40-point adverse move is $2,000 — larger than the daily loss limit on typical 50K evaluations (exact per-firm limits vary; check the firm’s pages). MES at $5 a point cuts the same move to $200. (source)
  5. Assuming the stop will fill at the level. The overnight session has a static ±7% price limit and the market stays open at the limit — it can sit locked there, and stops cannot execute beyond it until regular-hours circuit-breaker logic takes over. That is the March 2020 pattern: ES frozen at limit-down overnight while the loss beyond the limit accrued unexecuted. (source)

On the forecast desk

Questions this dossier suggests, in the form the forecast desk uses: a resolution rule and a named source, published before any probability is. These are drafts — nothing below is open for forecasts, and none has a desk number yet.

Draft — not yet a live question

Will the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) September 2026 contract’s official CME daily settlement price on a named date be at or above 7,550.00?

Resolves from CME Group’s official ES daily settlement (VWAP of Globex trades 14:59:30–15:00:00 CT, rounded to 0.25), published shortly after 15:00 CT on the CME settlements page — a single unambiguous exchange print.

Draft — not yet a live question

Will US CPI for July 2026, released 2026-08-12 at 08:30 ET, show headline year-over-year inflation at or above a named threshold?

Resolves from the official BLS Consumer Price Index news release. The 2026-08-12 date comes from a secondary calendar — confirm on the BLS release schedule before publishing.

Draft — not yet a live question

Will the September 2026 ES contract’s final settlement value (the S&P 500 Special Opening Quotation on the third Friday, 2026-09-18) be above 7,600.00?

Resolves from the CME final settlement / S&P 500 SOQ, published by CME Group per the equity-index final-settlement procedure. Naming the exact contract and date avoids roll ambiguity.

Sources

Every number above is drawn from one of the documents below; a figure that cannot be traced to one does not belong on this page. Corrections: hello@upme.com.

  1. CME Group — E-mini S&P 500 (ES) contract specifications ($50 × index, 0.25 tick = $12.50, quarterly months)
  2. NinjaTrader — E-mini S&P 500 contract page (specs cross-check)
  3. CME Group — Micro E-mini S&P 500 (MES) contract specifications ($5 × index, tick $1.25)
  4. Ironbeam — MES contract specifications (cross-check)
  5. CME Group — Micro E-mini equity index FAQ (MES shares ES hours, months, settlement mechanics)
  6. Schwab — S&P 500 E-mini futures (hours: Sun 18:00 ET – Fri 17:00 ET, daily halt 17:00–18:00 ET)
  7. Wikipedia — E-mini (final settlement to SOQ, third Friday; expiring contract stops 9:30 ET)
  8. CME Group education — understanding equity index daily and final settlement (VWAP 14:59:30–15:00:00 CT; SOQ)
  9. CME client wiki — E-mini S&P 500 daily settlement procedure
  10. emini-watch.com — broker margin snapshot, 2026-08-01 (TradeStation ES $2,762/$27,616; IBKR $22,987/$32,839; MES $276/$2,762)
  11. Ironbeam — how futures margin rates are set by brokers (older ES ≈ $13,200 initial figure, “as of Feb 2026”; likely stale)
  12. CME Group — ES margins page (exchange minimums; not verifiable at research time — check live)
  13. QuantVPS — MES tick value (MES margin ≈ 1/10 of ES as a structural rule)
  14. TradingEconomics — US stock market (S&P 500 ≈ 7,490 on 2026-07-31)
  15. S&P Dow Jones Indices — S&P 500 (7,411.98 on 2026-07-24, +8.28% YTD; cross-check)
  16. StreetStats — market volatility (SPX 30-day realized vol 10.69% annualized, close 2026-07-29)
  17. WallStreetNumbers — SPX volatility (trailing-year 10-day realized vol: high 24.00% 2026-04-09, low 4.94% 2025-07-29)
  18. Young Money Investments — ES/NQ average daily range statistics (VIX-regime table; 14-day ATR 40–65 pts in 2024–25; published 2025-09-23)
  19. BLS — Consumer Price Index (08:30 ET release)
  20. BLS — CPI news release schedule (confirm dates here before publishing)
  21. MacroOrNoise — CPI release dates 2026 (next release Wed 2026-08-12; secondary source)
  22. The Right Trader — economic calendar (NFP first Friday, 08:30 ET)
  23. eco3min — macro calendar (FOMC statement 14:00 ET, press conference 14:30 ET)
  24. Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendars (official dates)
  25. CNBC, 2020-03-09 — S&P futures frozen after tanking 5%: what happens when circuit breakers kick in
  26. CNBC, 2020-03-12 — stock futures hit limit-down for the second time in a week
  27. NYSE — Report of the Market-Wide Circuit Breaker Working Group (Mar 2020 MWCB activations, first since 1997)
  28. Simplify — navigating the historic VIX spike (2024-08-05: VIX 23 → 65 intraday pre-open, close near 40)
  29. Avantis Investors — lessons from the market panic of 2024 (Nikkei −12.3%, worst day since Oct 1987; recovery by Aug 9)
  30. CME Group education — understanding price limits and circuit breakers (overnight ±7% static limit; RTH 7/13/20% breakers)
  31. CME Group — S&P 500 price limits FAQ
  32. CME Group — E-mini S&P 500 market page (exchange-traded, centrally cleared, near-24/5)
  33. FTMO FAQ — account specifications (US500.cash symbol)
  34. FTMO blog — trading update, February 2026 (index CFD conditions)
  35. SSGA — SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fund page (~$781B assets, 0.0945% gross expense ratio)
  36. ETF Database — SPY profile (cross-check)
  37. Topstep help — permitted products per exchange (ES and MES allowed)
  38. TradeCovex — Topstep Combine account sizes and profit targets 2026 (position caps 5/10/15 contracts)
  39. Prop Trading Vibes — Topstep maximum contracts (micros 10:1 on TopstepX, 1:1 on third-party platforms)
  40. Prop Trading Vibes — Apex Trader Funding contract limits (micros count 1:1 against the cap)
  41. Cat in a The Broker — Apex Trader Funding 2026 (metals halt; rules update)
  42. TradeCovex — Apex Trader Funding rules 2026 (automated limit enforcement, 50% consistency, MAE/DCA rules removed, 5 days between payouts)
  43. FTMO FAQ — can I trade news? (funded Standard: no open/close ±2 minutes around NFP, CPI, FOMC)
  44. FTMO — US-type account FAQ (no news or overnight restrictions; leverage up to 1:33)
  45. FundedNext help — is news trading allowed? (Stellar funded: 5-minute window, 40% profit credit)
  46. FundedNext — CFD symbols and conditions (SPX500, NDX100, US30)
  47. FundedNext Futures help — news-trading rules (none on the futures arm)
  48. FundingPips help — news trading and weekend holding (10-minute lockout; Friday close-out)
  49. TradeStation — overnight price gap risk (broker education)
  50. TOS Indicators — FOMC volatility stages day-trading guide (practitioner source)
  51. ForTraders — day-trading futures tips for getting funded (practitioner source on FOMC/revenge-trading pattern)
  52. CME Group — ES daily settlements page (forecast-question resolution source)
  53. BLS — CPI news release (forecast-question resolution source)

Trade it inside published rules

The corridor this dossier prices — the −5% daily floor, the +10% target, and every other limit — is published, versioned and dated in the rulebook, before any account exists to apply it to. When the product launches, this instrument trades inside those rules or it does not trade here.

Read the rulebook Create account