Markets · Dossier

Crude oil

CLMCLUSOILCrude oil is trading a war regime: WTI around $85 as of early August 2026, up roughly 23% in a month, with implied volatility (OVX ~61) about four times the S&P 500’s. At $1,000 a point on CL — the contract that once settled at minus $37.63 — this dossier states what the instrument is, when it moves, and what those distances do to an account under published risk rules.

Primary symbol
CL
Avg daily range
3.0%
Sources cited
34
As of
2026-07-31

The instrument

Contract unit
1,000 barrelsNYMEX WTI light sweet crude. About $85,000 notional with the front month near $85 (close $84.67 on 2026-07-31).
Tick
$0.01/bbl = $10.00Per contract. A $1.00/bbl move is $1,000 per contract.
Micro contract
MCL, 100 barrelsOne tenth of CL, launched by CME in 2021: $0.01 tick = $1.00, a $1.00/bbl move = $100. Cash-settles to the final settlement of the corresponding CL contract — no delivery risk.
Exchange
NYMEX (CME Globex)
Hours
Sun–Fri 18:00–17:00 ETOne-hour daily maintenance halt 17:00–18:00 ET (5:00 PM–4:00 PM CT with a 60-minute break). Same schedule for MCL.
Months
MonthlyListed for the current year, the next 10 calendar years, and 2 additional months. CL is physically delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma; trading terminates in the month before delivery — CME’s exact termination rule could not be verified for this dossier (cmegroup.com unreachable on the research date), so check it before holding anywhere near expiry.
Settlement
Physical (CL) / financial (MCL)Holding CL to expiry is an obligation to make or take delivery of 1,000 physical barrels. MCL cash-settles.
Exchange margin (CL)
Roughly $8,000–$15,000 per contractDeliberately a range: the exact current CME figure could not be verified on 2026-08-02 (cmegroup.com unreachable). Reference points run from a likely-stale $4,213 FCM quote to $11,664 initial in March 2025; one FCM education page puts NYMEX overnight initial at ~$8,000–$15,000 “varying materially during volatility”. With OVX near 61, assume the top of the range — check CME and your FCM before sizing anything. MCL runs roughly one tenth (~$550–$1,400 across the same references).
CFD equivalent
USOIL / USOUSDOTC contracts tracking WTI at CFD brokers and CFD prop firms — FTMO quotes USOIL.cash, FundedNext USOUSD. The broker is your counterparty; overnight holds pay swap/financing.
WTI vs Brent
CL is the US benchmarkBrent (ICE, symbol B) is the international benchmark: also 1,000 barrels and a $0.01 tick, but cash-settled against the ICE Brent Index. US retail and prop standard is CL/MCL on CME — every major US futures prop lists CL/MCL, not Brent — and CFD firms typically quote USOIL-style symbols tracking WTI.

How it moves

Two regimes, honestly: a typical CL day travels $1.50–$3.00 — about 1.8–3.5% at $85 — and that is already more than index futures. As of early August 2026 the market is not typical: 14-day ATR on the September contract is $4.40, 5.19% of price, with 14-day historic volatility at 59.5% annualized and OVX (the oil VIX) near 61 against a VIX of ~16 and gold vol (GVZ) of ~24.5 — oil implied vol roughly 4× equities and 2.5× gold. OPEC announcements, geopolitical headlines, or inventory surprises can move $3–$8/bbl in 30–60 minutes, which at $1,000 a point is $3,000–$8,000 per contract inside an hour.

Average daily range

3.0%

Normal-regime baseline (~top of the typical $1.50–$3.00/day band at ~$85); the August 2026 war regime runs wider — ATR(14) $4.40 = 5.19% · source

The scheduled events

WhenWhatWhy it matters
Wednesdays 10:30 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report The most-watched inventory print and the key driver of short-term crude moves; delayed one day on holiday weeks (remaining files after 13:00 ET). Surprises are in the $3–$8/bbl event class.
Tuesday afternoon API inventory report The industry print that precedes EIA. Commonly cited at 16:30 ET, but the exact release time was not verified for this dossier — treat the timestamp as unconfirmed.
Roughly every two months OPEC+ ministerial / voluntary-cut meetings The eight voluntary-cut countries met 2026-08-02; the 41st full OPEC+ Ministerial was 2026-06-07. Production increments were paused for Feb–Mar 2026 and cut extensions run through Dec 2026.
Sunday 18:00 ET open Weekend gap risk Weekend geopolitical headlines gap the Sunday open — WTI printed $130.50 on a Sunday-evening open in March 2022. Futures props that force flat daily (Topstep, 15:10 CT) remove this risk class; CFD swing accounts carry it.
Since March 2026, ongoing Iran war headline regime WTI +35% in one week in March 2026 — the biggest weekly gain since the contract began in 1983; +11% to $111.54 on April 1; −16% to $94.43 in a day on the April 8 ceasefire headline (largest one-day drop since April 2020); briefly back above $100 in late July.

The extremes on record

  • 2020-04-20 — May-2020 CL settled at −$37.63/bbl — the first negative settlement in the contract’s history; cash-settled QM and ICE WTI settled at the same print (source)
  • 2022-03-06/07 — Russia-invasion spike: WTI $130.50 and Brent $139.13 intraday — both the highest since July 2008 (source)
  • 2026-03 — Iran war: WTI +35% in one week — the biggest weekly gain since the contract began trading in 1983 (source)
  • 2026-04-01 / 04-08 — +11% to $111.54 in a day, then −16% to $94.43 on a ceasefire headline a week later — the largest one-day drop since April 2020; Brent touched a four-year high near $126 late that month (source)
  • 2026-04 — OVX peaked near 126 — its highest since 2020; still ~61 in early August versus VIX ~16 (source)

This instrument inside the corridor

The rulebook draws a corridor on a simulated $100,000 account: a daily floor at −5% and a phase-one target at +10%. Those two published percentages, priced in this instrument’s average day:

Inside the corridor Simulated · computed, not measured
An average day's range
3.0% of $85 ≈ 2.55 points
Worth per full contract (CL)
$2,550 per average day
Worth per micro (MCL)
$255 per average day
Daily floor: −5% of the $100,000 sim
$5,000
Contracts until one adverse average day breaches it
1 full contract ($2,550 of range) — at 2, one ordinary day ends the account
Perfect average days to the +10% target ($10,000), 1 contract
≈ 4.0 days of full-range capture

SIMULATED. Range inputs: 3.0% average daily range (Normal-regime baseline (~top of the typical $1.50–$3.00/day band at ~$85); the August 2026 war regime runs wider — ATR(14) $4.40 = 5.19%), reference price $85. Perfect capture of a full day’s range does not exist; this is geometry, not a promise. The ~3% range is the top of the normal $1.50–$3.00/day band; the August 2026 war regime runs wider (ATR14 $4.40 = 5.19% = $4,400/day per CL), and “perfect directional capture of the full daily range” is an upper bound no trader achieves — the point is the ratio of contract size to corridor, not a forecast.

Ways in

ChannelSymbolWhat it actually is
Futures CL 1,000 barrels on NYMEX via CME Globex, physically delivered at Cushing; $1,000 per $1.00 move. Exchange margin roughly $8k–$15k per contract in volatile regimes — the exact current figure was unverifiable on the research date; check CME and your FCM.
Micro futures MCL 100 barrels, one tenth of CL: $100 per $1.00 move, cash-settled to CL’s final settlement — no delivery risk. Broker-referenced initial margin ~$550–$750 in calm regimes, ~1/10 of CL.
CFD USOIL / USOUSD OTC contracts tracking WTI at CFD brokers and CFD props (FTMO: USOIL.cash; FundedNext: USOUSD). The broker is the counterparty; overnight holds pay swap/financing.
ETF USO United States Oil Fund holds WTI futures, not barrels — rolling long futures in contango sells low and buys high every month, which is how USO fell >80% YTD by May 2020 and reverse-split 1-for-8.

Do prop firms let you trade it?

Availability is a rulebook question, not a marketing one: an instrument a firm lists but voids trades on around its scheduled events is only half offered. Check the current terms before relying on a row below — firms change theirs without notice, and we publish ours.

FirmOfferedThe detail that matters
up·me opens at v1.2 The corridor above is our published rule set for it. The instrument list ships with rulebook v1.2, before anything can be bought — the row you can hold us to. Create an account to be in the first cohort when it opens.
Topstep true CL and MCL both explicitly permitted (energy list: CL, QM, NG, RB, HO plus micros). All positions must be flat by 3:10 PM CT daily — no overnight or weekend holds, which removes the Sunday-gap risk class. No stated EIA or news restriction was found. (source)
Apex Trader Funding true Supports CME Group products including CL and MCL via Rithmic/Tradovate/WealthCharts; referenced CL commissions $1.98/side (Rithmic) and $1.67 (Tradovate). Secondary-sourced only — Apex’s own help center was not directly fetched for this dossier, so confirm on apextraderfunding.com before relying on it. (source)
FTMO true Oil trades as USOIL.cash (alongside NATGAS.cash and HEATOIL.c); holiday early closes apply. News trading is unrestricted in Challenge/Verification; on funded FTMO Accounts, no opening or closing trades within 2 minutes either side of key macro releases (NFP/CPI/FOMC class). Whether the EIA report sits on that restricted-event list is unconfirmed — check FTMO’s event calendar before trading the Wednesday print on a funded account. Overnight and weekend holding allowed; swap fees are the trader’s responsibility. (source)
FundedNext true Oil is available as USOUSD on Stellar CFD accounts. On the separate FundedNext Futures product line, spot energy contracts (including USOUSD) are banned — CFD line only. (source)
FundingPips true Oil is tradable, commission-free, with energies leverage at 1:10 (vs 1:100 forex, 1:30 metals). The news rule catches EIA-Wednesday scalps: profits from trades opened or closed within ±5 minutes of a high-impact news event are not counted unless the trade was opened at least 5 hours before the event. On FundingPips Zero, weekend holds are a hard breach. (source)

How traders blow up on it

The same account-ending patterns recur on this instrument often enough to have names. None of them requires being wrong about direction.

  1. Gambling the EIA print. The Wednesday 10:30 ET number routinely produces multi-dollar moves in minutes — inventory, OPEC, and geopolitical surprises run $3–$8/bbl, which is $3,000–$8,000 per CL contract. On CFD props the trade may also be voided: FundingPips does not count profits from trades opened or closed within ±5 minutes of a high-impact event unless opened 5+ hours earlier. (source)
  2. Sunday and overnight gap risk. CL opens Sunday 18:00 ET, and weekend geopolitical headlines gap the open — WTI spiked to $130.50 on the Sunday-evening open of 2022-03-06, and 2026 delivered +11% and −16% single days a week apart. Futures props that force flat by 3:10 PM CT (Topstep) remove this risk class entirely; CFD swing accounts holding through the weekend carry all of it. (source)
  3. Assuming zero is the floor. On 2020-04-20 the May CL contract settled at −$37.63/bbl. Interactive Brokers’ systems could not display or accept negative-price orders and did not enforce margin correctly; hundreds of customers were long into settlement, IBKR ultimately covered about $104M of customer losses, and the CFTC fined it $1.75M for supervision failures. The broker paid that time. The mechanism — price with no floor at expiry — is still in the contract. (source)
  4. The physical-delivery trap. Holding CL to expiry obligates delivery of 1,000 barrels at Cushing, Oklahoma. Retail brokers force-liquidate positions near expiry, often at bad prices in thinning liquidity. MCL cash-settles and has no delivery leg — one of the strongest arguments for the micro. (source)
  5. Contango drag in the ETF. USO holds futures, not barrels: rolling long contracts in contango sells low and buys high every month. By May 2020 USO had fallen more than 80% YTD, NAV hit $2.04/share, and the fund did a 1-for-8 reverse split (2020-04-28) after restructuring out of 100% front-month exposure. “Buy and hold oil” through USO is a different instrument than oil. (source)
  6. Sizing full CL against a prop drawdown. One CL is $1,000 a point. A normal day’s range ($1.50–$3.00) is $1,500–$3,000 per contract; the current regime’s $4.40 ATR is $4,400 per contract per day. On a $100k sim with a −5% ($5,000) daily floor, one CL through one average adverse day in this regime consumes nearly the entire limit. The micro exists for exactly this arithmetic. (source)

On the forecast desk

Questions this dossier suggests, in the form the forecast desk uses: a resolution rule and a named source, published before any probability is. These are drafts — nothing below is open for forecasts, and none has a desk number yet.

Draft — not yet a live question

Will the WTI front-month contract (CL) record a daily settlement at or above $95.00 on any trading day on or before 2026-09-30?

Resolves YES on the first qualifying official NYMEX daily settlement price, via CME Group’s Settlements page. Settlement price, not any intraday print, and a single primary source stated in the rules.

Draft — not yet a live question

Will OPEC+ (the eight countries with voluntary cuts) announce any production increase effective on or before 2026-11-01, per an official OPEC press release dated on or before 2026-10-01?

Resolves from the opec.org press-release archive. Context: increments were paused for Feb–Mar 2026, cuts are extended through Dec 2026, and the group meets roughly every two months (one meeting held 2026-08-02).

Draft — not yet a live question

Will the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report show a commercial crude inventory build (positive weekly change, excluding SPR) in at least 3 of the 4 reports released between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-26?

Resolves from EIA WPSR Table 1 (ir.eia.gov), normally Wednesdays 10:30 ET. Rules count “reports released in the window”, not “Wednesdays” — holiday weeks shift the release a day.

Sources

Every number above is drawn from one of the documents below; a figure that cannot be traced to one does not belong on this page. Corrections: hello@upme.com.

  1. Investing.com — WTI crude front month ($84.67 close 2026-07-31; $81.06–$86.87 prior-day range; ~+23.5% on the month)
  2. Barchart — CLU26 technical analysis (ATR14 $4.40 = 5.19%; ATR9 $4.68; 14-day HV 59.5%, 9-day 70.9%; snapshot 2026-08-02)
  3. LP Futures — energies (CL unit, listed months, sample FCM margins $4,213/$3,830 overnight, $2,000 day-trade)
  4. Ironbeam — CL contract specifications (unit, tick, Globex hours)
  5. MetroTrade — MCL contract specifications (100 bbl, cash settlement to CL, ~$550–$750 initial margin reference)
  6. TradeAlgo — crude oil futures guide (physical delivery at Cushing; typical daily range $1.50–$3.00)
  7. Insignia Futures — learn to trade crude (NYMEX overnight initial ~$8k–$15k in volatility; $3–$8/bbl event moves; via search snippet)
  8. Schwab — micro crude futures (CL initial $11,664 / MCL $1,372 as of March 2025; MCL launched 2021; via search snippet)
  9. ICE — Brent futures contract rules, Section L (1,000 bbl, $0.01 tick, cash-settled vs ICE Brent Index)
  10. BrentChart — ICE Brent futures overview (expiry: last business day of second month preceding contract month)
  11. EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report release schedule (Wednesdays 10:30 ET; holiday shift +1 day)
  12. EIA — WPSR data portal (Table 1, forecast-resolution source)
  13. Wikipedia — 2026–2028 world oil market chronology (Iran-war price path: +35% week, $111.54, $94.43, Brent ~$126, >$100 late July)
  14. Yahoo Finance — ^OVX (OVX ~61 vs VIX ~16.4, GVZ ~24.5; 2026-08-02)
  15. SpotGamma — OVX oil volatility index (April 2026 peak ~126, highest since 2020)
  16. CFTC — interim staff report on the 2020-04-20 negative WTI settlement (−$37.63; QM and ICE WTI settled at the same print)
  17. CFTC — $1.75M order against Interactive Brokers (negative-price system and margin failures, 2020-04-20)
  18. Finance Magnates — Interactive Brokers oil-collapse loss swelled to $104 million
  19. FinanceFeeds — IBKR reports $103M expense compensating customers over oil trading
  20. PRNewswire — USCF announces 1-for-8 reverse split for USO (2020-04-22; restructuring from front-month)
  21. CNBC — the oil ETF trying to avoid imploding attempts a reverse split (USO >80% YTD drawdown, NAV $2.04)
  22. CNBC, 2022-03-06 — WTI $130.50 / Brent $139.13, highest since July 2008
  23. Topstep help — when and what products can I trade (CL/MCL permitted; flat by 3:10 PM CT)
  24. SurgeFunded — Apex Trader Funding supported instruments (CL/MCL; secondary source — verify on apextraderfunding.com)
  25. The Trusted Prop — Apex Trader Funding review (CL commissions $1.98 Rithmic / $1.67 Tradovate; secondary source)
  26. FTMO — trading update 2026-02-05 (USOIL.cash symbol; holiday early closes)
  27. TradingFinder — FTMO rules (funded-account 2-minute news restriction; overnight/weekend holding allowed)
  28. FundedNext — CFD symbols and conditions (USOUSD on Stellar accounts)
  29. DamnPropFirms — prohibited instruments on FundedNext Futures (spot energy incl. USOUSD banned on the futures line)
  30. FundingPips help — news trading & weekend holding (±5-minute rule; 5-hour exemption; Zero weekend-hold breach)
  31. TradingFinder — FundingPips rules (energies leverage 1:10 vs 1:100 forex, 1:30 metals)
  32. OPEC — press release 2026-01-04 (meeting cadence; voluntary-cut group)
  33. Egypt Oil & Gas — OPEC+ members pause January–March 2026 production increases
  34. CME Group — CL daily settlements (forecast-question resolution source)

Trade it inside published rules

The corridor this dossier prices — the −5% daily floor, the +10% target, and every other limit — is published, versioned and dated in the rulebook, before any account exists to apply it to. When the product launches, this instrument trades inside those rules or it does not trade here.

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